1. Market Landscape and Policy Drivers

Governments worldwide have set ambitious decarbonisation targets for road freight. The European Union, China and the United States all plan to phase out diesel trucks by the mid‑2030s, backed by subsidies, toll exemptions and stricter emissions standards (PwC, 2022). PwC projects that by 2035, zero‑emission trucks will make up 70‑80 % of new production, with BETs leading the share and FCTs positioned as a complementary long‑haul solution (PwC, 2022). These policy signals are prompting OEMs to accelerate development of both power‑train families.

2. Total Cost of Ownership – Numbers and Trends

The most concrete comparison comes from a TCO analysis of heavy‑duty trucks in China (Mu et al., 2024). Using a five‑year ownership horizon, the study found:

• For a 16‑ton, 500 km‑range truck, the FCT’s TCO was 0.034 USD/ton‑km, a 122 % premium over the BET counterpart (Mu et al., 2024).
• For a 49‑ton, 1 000 km‑range truck, the FCT’s TCO was 0.024 USD/ton‑km, still 36 % higher than the BET (Mu et al., 2024).
• By 2035, cost gaps narrow: the 16‑ton FCT’s TCO falls to 0.016 USD/ton‑km, 58 % above the BET, while the 49‑ton gap shrinks to 4.5 % (Mu et al., 2024).

Key drivers of these differences are the energy price (hydrogen remains expensive) and the vehicle cost (large batteries increase vehicle weight and purchase price). The study predicts parity at an ≈1 890 km range if renewable electricity falls to 0.022 USD/kWh (Mu et al., 2024).

3. Operational Realities: Range, Refueling and Infrastructure

BETs excel in short‑haul and regional distribution where charging times can be scheduled, while FCTs retain an advantage on ultra‑long hauls where battery weight penalties become prohibitive. However, the high capital cost of hydrogen stations and the current price of green hydrogen (≈ 4 EUR/kg in Europe) remain barriers (Mu et al., 2024).

4. Environmental Impact and Emissions

Both power‑trains can achieve near‑zero tailpipe emissions, but life‑cycle emissions diverge based on electricity and hydrogen sources. When renewable electricity supplies the grid, BETs can deliver < 30 g CO₂‑eq/km. Hydrogen’s carbon intensity hinges on production method; electro‑lysis powered by renewables can match BETs, yet today most hydrogen is grey, emitting ≈ 10 kg CO₂/kg H₂ (Mu et al., 2024). The pathway to low‑carbon hydrogen is therefore a make‑or‑break factor for FCT competitiveness.

5. Future Outlook: Technology Roadmaps to 2035

Cost trajectories suggest that by 2035:

• Battery costs could fall to ≈ 63 USD/kWh, reducing vehicle weight and purchase price (Mu et al., 2024).
• Fuel‑cell stack costs are projected to drop below 80 USD/kW, and hydrogen storage to ≈ 294 USD/kg (Mu et al., 2024).
• Renewable electricity may reach 0.022 USD/kWh, enabling FCT‑BET parity at long ranges (Mu et al., 2024).

If these trends hold, BETs will dominate market share up to 2035, while FCTs will capture niche long‑haul segments where range and rapid refueling are decisive.

6. Decision Framework for Fleet Managers

1. Define operating profile – average daily mileage, load factor and required range.
2. Model TCO – use the cost components (vehicle, energy, maintenance) from Mu et al. (2024) as a template.
3. Assess infrastructure availability – map charging vs. hydrogen stations along routes.
4. Consider regulatory incentives – factor in regional subsidies for ZEV purchases and fuel‑price support.
5. Plan for flexibility – hybrid or dual‑fuel solutions can hedge against uncertain hydrogen price trajectories.

By applying this framework, operators can decide whether to commit to an all‑electric fleet, a mixed fleet, or wait for further hydrogen cost reductions.